The Big Picture

Markets look poised to grow in the near term following a neutral Fed outlook, and 3 double beats from $META, $MSFT, and $TSLA to kick off big tech earnings season.

Earnings Breakdown (After Hours)

• $META (+8%): Expected EPS of $8.19 vs $8.88. Expected revenue of $58.4B vs $59.8B.
• $MSFT (-6.8%): Expected EPS of $3.91 vs $4.14. Expected revenue of $80.3B vs $81.3B.
• $TSLA (+2%): Expected EPS of $0.45 vs $0.50. Expected revenue of $24.7B vs $24.7B.

Overall Outlook

Overall, a fed move that aligned with expectations, and impressive earnings to start off the Mag 7. A positive print from $AAPL tomorrow could lead to a continuation in this recent market uptrend.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Not Just Another Backtesting Tool

Traditional backtesting platforms give you a false sense of confidence. They let you curve-fit strategies on historical data, show you a pretty equity curve, and send you on your way. ATLAS is different.

Every strategy that runs through ATLAS is subjected to a battery of statistical tests designed to break it before the market does.

The Core Pipeline

ATLAS integrates a modular, multi-stage data pipeline:

1. Data Acquisition: Clean, validated OHLCV data from multiple sources.
2. Feature Engineering: Over 20+ technical indicators (EMA, RSI, MACD, ATR, Bollinger Bands, etc.), auto-normalized for machine learning stationarity.
3. Signal Generation: Either via declarative strategy logic or trained ML models (RandomForest, XGBoost, Logistic Regression).
4. Realistic Execution: Next-bar-open entry, intrabar stop-loss/take-profit execution, and configurable slippage/commission modeling.

Built-In Skepticism: Confidence Testing

Before any strategy is considered valid, it must pass our Confidence Tests:

• Random Trade Benchmark: Is this strategy statistically better than random entries?
• Look-Ahead Bias Detection: Does this strategy cheat by using future data?
• Walk-Forward Validation: Does this strategy hold up when trained on rolling windows, not just one perfect split?

Monte Carlo Simulation

A backtest is one path through history. That's not enough. ATLAS runs 10,000+ Monte Carlo simulations—resampling trades in different orders—to stress-test the strategy's equity curve. We report the 5th percentile drawdown and return, not just the happy path.

Multi-Asset & Portfolio Testing

ATLAS isn't limited to single tickers. It supports multi-ticker portfolio backtesting with equal-weight allocation, and can incorporate supplementary assets (like SPY or VIX) as feature inputs or exit triggers.

The Bottom Line

ATLAS was built with a single philosophy: If a strategy can't survive ATLAS, it won't survive the market. We designed it to be skeptical, rigorous, and realistic, so you don't have to learn hard lessons with real money.

The Big Picture

Markets continued to bleed today, as the tech and crypto sell off further intensified. Increasing projections of AI automated jobs in the near future is causing investors to doubt software and tech companies, leading to many tech heavy market participants experiencing significant losses, despite only a minimal dip in the S&P. However, this can be considered as a good opportunity, since the market’s fear is irrational in that a major argument that caused recent dips was low ROI on AI investment. $GOOGL reported earnings today after hours, posting a double beat and exceptional growth, but resulted in no significant moves.

Sector Watch

The tech sector is the main focus today, with chips showing increased weakness, led by $AMD, which bled over 17% despite showing record revenue and robust guidance. At $200, this name is giving us an attractive dip to buy, as AI growth is only expected to continue. $PLTR also joined in on the slide, giving up 11.62%. $HOOD is now at an astounding $80, down nearly 50% from its October ATH, on fears of reducing crypto volume and cyclical speculations. However, in a sea of red, $LLY managed to gain over 10% following earnings

Crypto Corner

Major coins continue to plunge, with $BTC approaching $70,000 support. $ETH has now plunged almost $1000 and seems to be seeking buyers at the $2000 area; $SOL below $100, with outflows across the entire market increasing.

Overall Outlook

In summary, not a lot to be happy about in the market as of now, but the question remains whether the S&P’s resilience will manage to rescue Big Tech, and whether or not this is a dip investors should buy.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Big Picture

Markets start off the week green, despite a partial government shutdown which began Saturday. Gold and silver continue to experience increased volatility, along with cryptocurrency amidst this Fed transition and the nomination of a new chair, Kevin Warsh.

Sector Watch

Chips led the market today, with names like $AMD, $MU, and $TSM posting large gains. Looks like $NVDA did sit this one out though. $AAPL also did very well, posting a 4% gain following strong earnings last week that reignited investor confidence. $WMT is also up 4%, now reaching a new ATH on news of Walmart+ membership growth hitting record highs. $PLTR is now also up after hours following their earnings report, which showed a huge surge in revenue and EPS.

In terms of losers, $HOOD was a big one, losing nearly 10%, and even closing below $90. This is a very attractive dip buy opportunity amidst talks of a collaboration between Robinhood and the Trump Administration for the new Trump accounts.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto staged a small rebound from a massive dip it took over the weekend. $BTC is now below $80,000 which means the war on $90,000 has officially been lost. However, all major coins did end the day green, showing a slight glimmer of hope for the near future, given that the macro holds.

Overall Outlook

Overall, a pretty mixed day, but hope remains for this market even after a not so great Friday session. Tech earnings continue into this week with big names like $AMD, $GOOGL, and $AMZN reporting. These prints will determine the short term outlook for the market.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Big Picture

Markets look poised to grow in the near term following a neutral Fed outlook, and 3 double beats from $META, $MSFT, and $TSLA to kick off big tech earnings season.

Earnings Breakdown (After Hours)

• $META (+8%): Expected EPS of $8.19 vs $8.88. Expected revenue of $58.4B vs $59.8B.
• $MSFT (-6.8%): Expected EPS of $3.91 vs $4.14. Expected revenue of $80.3B vs $81.3B.
• $TSLA (+2%): Expected EPS of $0.45 vs $0.50. Expected revenue of $24.7B vs $24.7B.

Overall Outlook

Overall, a fed move that aligned with expectations, and impressive earnings to start off the Mag 7. A positive print from $AAPL tomorrow could lead to a continuation in this recent market uptrend.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Big Picture

Markets saw a continuation in uptrend, ahead of key tech earnings and Fed decision tomorrow. The S&P saw a record close of $6979, eying the potential $7000 level. Despite President Trump's affirmation, USD continues to weaken, causing rising questions about increasing inflation and long term macro.

Sector Watch

The tech sector led this uptick, with $MU taking the lead with a 5.4% gain amid increasing chip HBM chip demand and an attractive valuation outlook heading into the future. Big names like $MSFT (2.2%) and $AAPL (1.12%) saw big gains, with investor confidence in upcoming earnings. $META (0.09%) and $TSLA (0.90%) did not take part in this rally, showing possible doubt for beating estimates.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto had a slight green day, due to its increased dependence on global geopolitics and Fed policy in comparison to equities. $BTC remains below key $90,000 level, now fighting to reclaim $89,000. $ETH showed strength, reclaiming $3,000, but still remains on the fence.

Overall Outlook

Watch for earnings reports from $MSFT, $META, and $TSLA tomorrow, as they will set the tone for the Mag 7, and overall market as we head into this earnings season. Fed is expected to keep rates flat.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Big Picture

Markets start out the week green, with the S&P slowly climbing back to ATHs we saw earlier this month. This comes ahead of a busy week, filled with earnings from major companies like $MSFT, $META, $TSLA, and $AAPL, as well as the first Federal Reserve policy decision of 2026.

Sector Watch

No sectors took much of a lead today, and the same could be said about individual tickers. Eyes are mostly on names reporting earnings this week, with $AAPL leading the pack at nearly a 3% gain. $META followed, posting 2%, but $TSLA bled amid investors reevaluating the robotaxi timeline.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto continues to struggle following a dip this past weekend, with each coin consolidating at its respective key level. Look forward to volatility in $BTC to come soon, as Fed policy evolves and a new chair is selected.

Overall Outlook

Overall, a strong day in markets, with investors on the edge of their seats ahead of key earnings and fed policy that will decide the fate of the market. Expect a relatively flat day tomorrow, albeit escalating geopolitics or trade tensions.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Big Picture

Markets end the week on a high note after recovering from a low open, inching back towards ATHs. This follows President Trump's deescalation with EU countries and his efforts to acquire Greenland.

Sector Watch

Once again, the tech sector had a mostly green day, with names like $AMZN, $NFLX, and $META beginning to catch bids following a downturn. Chips in particular are also doing well, following easing investor fears of a trade war and increased demand due to AI advancement.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto did not perform as well as equities this week, ending red, with major coins below key levels. $BTC did not manage to close above $90,000, showing possibilities of further short term weakness. Expect increased volatility in the next month.

Overall Outlook

Overall, a mostly good close to a week that started with blood. Upcoming earnings will decide the path heading further into the year, with analyst expectations skyhigh amid AI promises.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Big Picture

Markets rebound as geopolitical tensions ease, following President Trump's statement claiming the U.S will not escalate to military conflict in the acquisition of Greenland. VIX saw a sharp downturn, following renewed investor confidence, which reflected in the S&P's 1% gain and bounce from its 50-day EMA. EU leaders suspended a US trade deal, which seemed to show almost no impact on the broader market.

Sector Watch

The tech sector captured a lot of this market upside, as $INTC, $AMD, and $MU posted large gains on continued chip and memory demand. $AAPL is yet to see a strong bounce as our research predicted, but still saw minimal gains today.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto also followed suit with the market, with major coins all posting decent gains. $BTC reclaimed $90,000, further continuing this tug of war, despite fundamentals and technicals pointing towards a breakout.

Overall Outlook

Overall, markets found slightly renewed optimism amidst a time of global conflict, with volatility likely to pick back up as geopolitics further escalate. President Trump remarked that the stock market would likely see much upside, which would coincide and help his case for the midterm elections coming this year.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Big Picture

Markets bled severely today, with the S&P closing over 2% in the negative, marking the worst session since October. This sell off comes amidst President Trump announcing a new 10% tariff on 8 European countries, reigniting fear in investors globally. Geopolitical tensions look to be rising further as the U.S tries to find leverage to buy Greenland.

Sector Watch: Tech Bloodbath

The tech sector saw the worst of the market today, with all Mag 7 stocks taking a significant hit. $NVDA bled over 4% amid already existing AI bubble fears, coupled with these new tariffs and geopolitical tensions.

$AAPL continues its multi-week downward trend, with a daily RSI of 18 as of today's close, which comes close to a record low of 17 observed during the 2008 financial crisis. This name seems to be a good dip buy, since it has a history of resilience even in periods of broader market weakness.

$TSLA also looks to be a good opportunity here, following Musk's promises of AI chip design acceleration and AI5 being capable of nearly perfect autonomous driving. Many banks have begun upgrading price targets, and expect this name to lead the world into self-driving cars, making it a promising opportunity.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto also joined in on the bloodbath, with $BTC once again breaking below its key support at $90,000. Other blue chips have also joined in, reversing all of what seemed like a rally last week. $ETH is now below $3,000, pointing towards prior support. $BTC's ability to hold its $87,000 level will determine the short term for this sector.

Overall Outlook

Overall, an immensely red day to start out this week, with the S&P now negative YTD. Keep your eyes peeled to see if we catch a bid at the 6700 prior support. Looking forward to a relief from geopolitical tensions to see the VIX cool down and markets to go green once again.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Big Picture

Markets faced a sell off today, led by fading investor confidence following mixed bank earnings and increased AI spending. CPI came in aligned with expectations, while PPI came in hotter than expected. Direction into the mid term will be decided by major earnings set to be released this coming month.

Sector Watch

The tech sector showed a lot of weakness today on valuation concerns and slowing investor optimism. Nearly every MAG 7 stock, apart from $GOOGL and $AAPL faced a significant decline. The finance sector also took a hit with major names like $WFC, $BAC, and $C also posting big red days.

Crypto Sentiment

On the other hand, crypto is performing quite well, with $BTC holding $96,000, and all other major coins seeing a continuation in momentum from Tuesday. Amidst the rotation from equities and indices, investors seem to be regaining confidence in cryptocurrency following institutional and legislative support.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Big Picture

A quiet day in global markets despite President Trump's new proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10%. The S&P closed at an all-time high yet again, following a slight gain of 0.16%.

Sector Watch

No sectors in the spotlight today, with not a lot of individual ticker activity either. $AAPL and $GOOGL showed little reaction to a newly announced partnership in which Apple will use Google's AI models within the Siri ecosystem, diverting away from their previous OpenAI partnership.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto was similarly highly uneventful, with no major coins making any significant moves.

What's Next

Markets await December CPI tomorrow, which will likely have a heavy impact on price. Expect high volatility tomorrow following the data release.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Big Picture

A strong ending to the first full trading week of 2026, with the S&P reaching a new all-time high once again. Despite jobs data not meeting expectations, investor confidence is still high because there is now an increased possibility of the Fed further easing interest rates. The Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which was the other main expected catalyst today, has once again been delayed, with no clear new date scheduled yet.

Tickers in Focus

$INTC was the main ticker in focus today, gaining nearly 11% following President Trump's meeting with the CEO. Another ticker worth looking at is $TSLA, which gained 2%, following optimistic price target revisions that place the stock going as high as $800 on self-driving optimism.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto once again had a quiet day, with $BTC managing to hold its $90,000 key support, and $ETH holding $3,000. Both of these levels will be critical to watch over the weekend to determine where we go next week, so stay tuned.

Overall Outlook

Overall, a positive start to this new year despite geopolitical tensions, with new all-time highs and optimistic investors looking forward to the innovation and growth 2026 will bring.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Big Picture

Another flat day for the market, as we head into an eventful Friday to wrap up the week. Tomorrow will be an influx for major news, setting the stage for the market heading into the next week. We expect to see jobless claims, a strong indicator of the overall economy and upcoming Fed direction, and the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs.

Sector Watch: Tech Under Pressure

The tech sector showed weakness today, reflecting decreasing investor confidence regarding AI, despite ongoing CES 2026, as well as China's government mandate that forces companies to halt purchases of Nvidia's H200. Both $NVDA (-2.15%) and $AMD (-2.54%) faced large declines today following this news, as well as $AVGO (-3.21%) leading the overall markets slightly downward, counteracting strength in defense and energy sectors amidst geopolitical tensions escalating.

$AMD is nearing its strong support level at $200, which will be a key level to watch and see if buyers step in. However, the weakness in tech doesn't seem to be impacting $AMZN's recent rally, as the stock still managed to gain roughly 2%. This ticker will be an interesting watch as it heads towards two key resistance levels at $250 (prior consolidation) and its $258 all time high.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto was uneventful, with most major names continuing in their decline, but only being slightly red today. Amplified macro fears are suppressing this sector, but we should see upside as those ease out. Direction across this sector will be contingent upon $BTC holding $90,000, so keep a close look here.

What's Next

To conclude, an important day tomorrow, filled with lots of catalysts that could make or break our portfolios heading into next week. Stay tuned for the jobs report and Supreme Court decision.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Macro Picture

A choppy day in the markets, as the S&P faced a mild decline, and NASDAQ gained mildly. Geopolitical tensions and macro are increasingly weighing on the market as a result of President Trump's continued efforts to annex Greenland, and the Supreme Court's upcoming decision on the legality of his tariffs on Friday.

It will be a big day for markets, as the jobs report will also be released on the same day, and will guide the Fed's stance heading further into this year.

Sector Watch

The financial sector showed weakness today, with notable names like $JPM, $BAC, and $WFC posting losses over 2%. No significant movement in any other sectors, with most having mixed results on the day.

In megacap tech stocks, $GOOGL had the only significant gain, rising 2.4%. $NVDA and $MSFT also went up 1%, and $AMZN managed to hold its recent breakout.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto had a red day, with major names facing a significant pullback from their recent rally, despite institutional support. Direction across this sector will be contingent upon $BTC holding $90,000, so keep a close look here.

Overall Outlook

Overall, a slightly red day across the majority of the market, with not much action. Investors are waiting cautiously for important jobs data, Supreme Court ruling, and geopolitical tensions to deescalate, so watch closely.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Macro Picture

The New Year rally continues, as we saw markets continue to push new all-time highs today, despite sector rotation and geopolitical tensions rising. The Supreme Court is now set to rule upon the legality of tariffs this upcoming Friday, which will lead to increased volatility, but it is not yet clear how this will impact the market directionally.

Additionally, the US government has worked out a deal with Venezuela regarding their oil reserves, and also now has potential plans to annex Greenland. Interesting times ahead in markets…

Tickers in Focus

Interesting tickers today were mostly tech and financial, with $AMZN leading markets following an aggressive breakout of more than 3%. $MU also continued its rally into further records, and gained 10%.

However, this positive semi sentiment did not spill over into $NVDA, which remained mostly flat, despite the new unveiling of their open source self-driving software, Alpamayo. This did lead to a bearish day for the current leader in FSD software, $TSLA, which closed at $433.

Speaking of declines, $AAPL continues its bearish streak, raising questions of whether it will find support at its 20-week EMA. Another big loser today was $SOFI, which gave up all of its gains from yesterday and then some, with an 8% decline. This is followed by downgrades from several banks, and further dilution of their stock.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto was not particularly active today, with no notable moves coming from any coins in the spotlight. Morgan Stanley filed for a Solana ETF, making it the first major institution to do so, but this was not met with much excitement from the market. Inflows are still historically high, which may lead to a breakout soon, given that macro aligns.

Overall Outlook

Overall, an interesting day in the market, starting off 2026 strong, with some interesting things to look forward to in these upcoming weeks.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Catalyst

A sharp rally across markets today, with the Dow Jones hitting record highs, led by strength in the oil/energy sector following geopolitical tensions and the U.S. military's capture of the Venezuelan President. This operation opens up the possibilities that come along with Venezuela's vast oil reserves, which is what led to this market-wide rally today.

Tickers in Focus

Oil-related tickers dominated today's winners, such as $CVX, which posted a 5% gain. On the other hand, the financial sector also outperformed the market. $COIN gained nearly 8% following a rating upgrade from Goldman Sachs. $HOOD and $SOFI also followed, both gaining nearly 7%.

Interestingly, $TSLA broke its downward momentum, gaining for the first time in 8 trading days, even after Q4 deliveries came short of estimates.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto had a majorly green day, with $BTC reclaiming $93,000, and $XRP gaining almost 13%. Investors seem to have a very risk-on perspective regarding the crypto sector right now, and it is likely that we will see record highs in $BTC this year, given that these geopolitical tensions don't continue to rise.

Overall Outlook

Markets had an amazing day to start off the first full week of 2026. A continuation of this momentum could lead to another rally which takes us to ATHs, especially with the optimism surrounding AI and cryptocurrency this year.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Big Picture

Jobless claims came out lower than expected—a bullish signal that indicates economic strength. Treasury yields are up, thanks to a hawkish 2026 outlook from the Fed, but the overall market remained nearly completely flat.

Sectors in Focus

Semiconductors led the charge today, driven by $MU, which reached a new ATH after gaining 10.5%, with analysts pointing to increased AI memory demand.

$TSLA broke down to $438 following a Q4 deliveries miss, marking its 7th consecutive red day in a row. Historically, this ticker has never seen 8 consecutive losing days—which raises questions about whether we break records or see a rebound on Monday.

$MSFT is also down over 2% today over concerns of an antitrust probing in Brazil.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto had a good start to the year, with all the blue chips going green. $BTC managed to close above $90,000, creating hopes of a potential early-year rebound following the slump we've seen these past few months. This could lead to a continuation in other similar assets such as $ETH, which currently rests in its Fibonacci golden zone measured from its April low and August high.

What's Next

For now, volume remains low, but as we wrap up this holiday season and new year frenzy and head into next week, expect to see markets become active once again.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The 2025 Close

A moderate dip in the overall market today, with the S&P losing 0.74%, marking the 4th consecutive red close and once again breaking below the 20-day EMA. However, due to the holiday season causing low volume, it is possible that this is merely an overreaction and could be an easy recovery leading into next week.

What's Next

Markets will be closed tomorrow (Happy New Year!), but we have jobless claims to look forward to on Friday—the first market day of 2026. The current median projection for the S&P in 2026 is around a 10% gain, with the Fed looking to cut between 25 and 50 bps throughout the year.

Ticker Watch

The only interesting ticker that saw significant movement today was $HOOD, which now rests at $113, below its $114 support level. I believe we will see this ticker down even further to around $110, which will provide a solid buying opportunity.

Crypto Sentiment

Not much noise in crypto today, with $BTC closing slightly down on the year. Outlooks remain generally positive for all mainstream cryptocurrencies as adoption will only quicken, along with institutional and government accumulation.

Final Thoughts

To conclude, a moderately red day to end off 2025, but promises of a bullish 2026. Happy New Year!

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Fed Minutes

Due to a strong finish from the overall economy and growing expectations for the upcoming year, the Fed is now taking a hawkish stance. Markets are pricing in only one 25 bps cut, expected to come in March.

Megacap Spotlight

One name that took the spotlight today was $META, following a $2B acquisition of Manus AI, underscoring the company's continued emphasis on artificial intelligence.

$TSLA also seems to be maintaining strength above $450, and will likely be a name that performs very well this upcoming year on cybercab rollouts, self-driving innovation, and possibly even Optimus.

In the financial sector, we see two solid buying opportunities in $HOOD and $COIN. Though both names have been in a downtrend recently, there is a lot of promise heading into the future.

Crypto Sentiment

Crypto had a moderately good day today, with all major names ending >1% positive on account of a bullish outlook heading into 2026 due to increasing legislative and institutional involvement, as we discussed yesterday.

Year-End Outlook

We are looking at a strong finish to the year, with the S&P up >17%, barring disaster tomorrow. The Fed looks hawkish but is well satisfied with the state of the economy, meaning we can expect more growth and the AI era to continue.

Disclaimer: This brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Market Overview

We saw a slight pullback today in nearly everything, with trading volume easing off heading into the New Year. Investors are now looking forward to FOMC minutes on Tuesday, which will provide guidance into the Fed's stance heading into 2026. This is a major catalyst to watch, and will likely impact the market well into next week following Friday's reaction as the first trading day of 2026 (markets closed Jan 1st).

Ticker Watch: $TSLA

Though I was expecting this ticker to continue its momentum into the end of the year, concerns over delivery numbers and collapsing agreements with a key battery supplier have caused it to dip below its 20-day EMA. However, Stratos Deep Research (in progress) indicates that this is not a statistically significant bear signal for this ticker over the last 5 years, and is often only followed by a minor correction—unless combined with more structural breaks and weak fundamentals.

Crypto Sentiment

$BTC's reluctance to reclaim $90,000 with conviction does brew doubts heading into the New Year about whether another cycle has ended. Regardless, this remains an excellent DCA / long-term opportunity, with growing institutional and legislative involvement poised to increase throughout 2026.

The Catalyst

FOMC minutes on Tuesday will dictate how we start the new year. Stay tuned.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this brief is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The Macro View

Following yesterday's catalysts, $SPY decisively reclaimed its 20-day EMA. This momentum signal was confirmed by a volatility crush, with the VIX collapsing over 11.5%, signaling market strength.

Sector In Focus: Semiconductors

The rally was ignited by an impressive earnings beat from Micron ($MU), which jumped nearly 7%. This catalyst reinvigorated the entire AI hardware sector:

• $AMD: +6.15%
• $NVDA: +3.93%
• $AVGO: +3.18%

Driven by this strength, $QQQ outperformed with a 1.30% gain.

Crypto Resilience

Despite the theoretical headwind of a Bank of Japan rate hike, crypto assets displayed remarkable relative strength. $BTC is up >3%, while high-beta assets like $ETH, $XRP, and $SOL all posted gains exceeding 5%.

The Outlook

The "AI Bubble" fears are being dismantled by hard earnings data. With major risk events (CPI, BoJ) now in the rearview, the path of least resistance is higher. The Santa Rally appears to be officially underway.

Market Analysis

The 50 day EMA has been a place of technical stagnation for both the SPY and QQQ, and today was reclaimed by the SPY, while QQQ barely fell short. Since the market closed, the Bank of Japan carried out the expected 25 bps hike.

The Outlook

Following the release of this news that has been looming over the market, and a bullish CPI print, the probability of rallying into 2026 is beginning to look more promising. If the market displays strength tomorrow, I think we are in for a treat from Mr.Claus himself as we approach the holiday season.

Ticker Watch

Individual stocks today that caught my attention were $TSLA (3.45%) and $META (2.30%), two of my most frequently discussed picks that are beginning to look increasingly promising. $SOFI gained over 4% following the launch of a US dollar stablecoin.

In crypto, $BTC is rising to $87,000 following the BoJ interest rate hike.

The Bearish Case

BTC followed a similarly bearish path, dipping 1.87%. This is due to prolonged skepticism on top US companies pouring trillions of dollars into AI infrastructure and a possible military conflict with Venezuela, combined with an incoming Bank of Japan rate hike.

The Bullish Counter-Thesis

However, delayed November CPI data is expected to come in well exceeding expectations. This would lead to a reclaim of important structural levels in the overall market, and since institutional and retail traders are essentially all in at this point, it could lead to Santa rally which continues well into 2026.

Key Levels

$TSLA saw a large dip over 4% today but will still outperform in the near term. $AAPL is bleeding along with the market down to $272. One of the only large cap stocks holding its own is $WMT, down less than 1%.

Almost all of the biggest names in AI ($NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO, TSM) are currently at a large discount, along with three financial stocks with a bright future: $HOOD, $SOFI, and $COIN.